Impact of climate change on the West Midlands

Where we are now?

Efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions are in place to address the causes of climate change, and there are many ways businesses can contribute towards this as indicated on the Training and Resources pages. However, at present, the global pace of emissions reduction is not rapid enough to prevent climate change from impacting society, including our economy and infrastructure. Therefore, we all need to be prepared for the impacts of climate change in the West Midlands.

Evidence shows that we have already experienced many impacts from extreme weather events. This has included:

Flooding, either from water courses (fluvial flooding) or directly from intense rainfall events (flash flooding).
Storms, where a mix of strong winds and heavy rain leads to disruption and damage to infrastructure and buildings.
Extreme heatwaves, such as the July 2022 event which broke UK temperature records.
Droughts, as a consequence of drier summers, leading to hosepipe bans.

Some of these events have had devastating impacts on people’s ability to go about their daily activities. Experience in the West Midlands and across England has shown that extreme weather could have some serious consequences to your own business operations, and also for businesses in your supply chains.

Where we are heading?

There is increasing evidence that extreme weather events are increasing in frequency and intensity. In the second half of the century, the amount of change that occurs will depend on how successful we are in reducing greenhouse gas emissions globally. This will influence the extent to which we need to adapt and, therefore, how significant the impact will be on businesses and the tourism sector.

This table shows what the expected changes are likely to be against a best (rapid global reduction in emissions) and worst (slow reduction in emissions) case scenario.

Although some of the projected changes in the above table may seem modest, even in the best-case scenario, they could lead to profound effects on our climate and, therefore, lead to impacts that could affect your business. Some of the potential impacts and consequences in the West Midlands are likely to be as summarised in the table below.

Likely trend	Impact	Potential consequence
Reduction in rainfall in summer	Drought	Water supply issues and restrictions Greater fire risk, leading to worsening air quality and damage to assets Changes to biodiversity and landscapes Increased food insecurity due to crop failure Greater likelihood of subsidence of buildings and infrastructure
Increase in rainfall in winter	Flooding	Damage to premises Displacement of workers and residents from businesses and homes Damage to infrastructure leading to power cuts and transport delays Changes to biodiversity and landscapes Damage to cultural heritage assets
Increase in temperature in summer	Heatwaves	Heat-induced health problems Worsening air quality Greater costs as a result of the need for cooling Failure of infrastructure assets such as railways and ICT due to overheating Changes to biodiversity and landscapes caused by heat stress

Potential impacts on the West Midlands tourism industry

The impacts of climate change on the tourism sector are wide-ranging and could be both positive and negative, with the positive impacts only likely to be realised if the negative ones are addressed. More information on this can be found on the Adaptation and Resilience pages. Impacts on tourism are also not hugely well defined, but some possible examples include the following:

Positive

Negative

Warmer, drier conditions make it more appealing to visit outdoor spaces
Greater number of hot, dry days which are more appealing for outdoor leisure activities
More ‘staycations’ as conditions abroad become too hot to enjoy
Opportunities for food and drink outlets to diversify due to a greater range of local products available

Potential damage to the landscape of outdoor spaces due to influx of visitors
Destruction to cultural heritage and sensitive sites, leading to higher maintenance costs
Overheating of hotels and other resorts making them less appealing to visit
Health risks to visitors in hotter conditions
More people may flock to the coast, preferring them to West Midlands-based destinations in hotter weather
Damage and disruption to all tourism businesses from flooding
Disruption to supply chains of (especially) food and drink

All of the above may have economic impacts on your tourism business, both positive and negative; your business should take action to ensure it is prepared for the changes that it may experience.